# Revenue Visibility Model

## Definition

The Revenue Visibility Model is a layered framework for assessing how predictable a revenue outcome is based on the quality of execution, the strength of buyer commitments, and the density of supporting evidence. It replaces binary win/loss forecasting with a graduated visibility scale.

## Visibility Layers

### Layer 1: Opaque

No meaningful evidence of deal progression exists. The deal relies entirely on rep narrative. Revenue from opaque deals should not be included in committed forecasts.

**Characteristics:**
- No recent stakeholder engagement
- No documented milestones completed
- No commitment evidence

### Layer 2: Emerging

Early-stage evidence exists but is insufficient to confirm trajectory. The deal shows potential but lacks the commitment density required for forecast inclusion.

**Characteristics:**
- Initial discovery completed
- Problem statement documented
- Key stakeholders identified but not yet engaged in evaluation

### Layer 3: Developing

Substantive evidence of deal progression exists. Multiple milestones have been completed with supporting documentation. Buyer engagement is active and involves authoritative stakeholders.

**Characteristics:**
- Validation milestones completed
- Technical or commercial evaluation in progress
- Budget discussions initiated

### Layer 4: Committed

Strong commitment evidence exists. The buyer has made explicit, documented commitments that indicate high probability of closure. Remaining milestones are procedural rather than evaluative.

**Characteristics:**
- Budget formally allocated
- Procurement process initiated
- Timeline agreed with specific dates
- Contract terms under review

### Layer 5: Confirmed

The deal has reached contractual confirmation. All milestones are complete. Revenue recognition criteria are met or imminent.

**Characteristics:**
- Contract signed
- Onboarding initiated
- Delivery milestones in progress

## Scoring Model

Each deal receives a visibility score based on:

1. **Milestone Completion Rate**: Percentage of expected milestones completed with evidence.
2. **Evidence Density**: Number and quality of evidence artefacts per milestone.
3. **Commitment Strength**: Progression from verbal to documented commitments.
4. **Engagement Recency**: Time since last substantive stakeholder interaction.
5. **Drift Status**: Whether the deal is on trajectory or experiencing drift.

## Operational Application

The Revenue Visibility Model informs three operational decisions:

1. **Forecast Categorisation**: Only deals at Layer 3 or above are included in operational forecasts. Layer 4 and 5 deals form the committed forecast.
2. **Resource Allocation**: Deals at Layer 2 receive standard support. Deals at Layer 3 with drift risk receive priority intervention.
3. **Leadership Review**: Deals that regress from a higher layer to a lower layer are automatically surfaced for leadership review.

## Related Concepts

- [The Revenos Execution Framework](https://revenos.tech/knowledge/execution-framework)
- [Execution Evidence](https://revenos.tech/knowledge/execution-evidence)
- [Execution Drift](https://revenos.tech/knowledge/execution-drift)